Iracki błąd. W rocznicę kłamstw Powella w ONZ.

Obrazek użytkownika piotr.wolejko
Świat

Jan Barańczak na swoim blogu Bookistan przypomniał wydarzenie bez precedensu w najnowszej historii świata. W pierwszym tygodniu lutego 2003 roku sekretarz stanu USA Colin Powell przekonywał na forum ONZ o konieczności inwazji na Irak i obalenia reżimu Saddama Husajna. Powell przedstawiał całą masę rzekomych dowodów na posiadanie, produkcję oraz zagrożenie użycia broni masowego rażenia przez irackiego dyktatora. Jedynym właściwym posunięciem, zdaniem przedstawiciela Stanów Zjednoczonych, było obalenie Husajna i uratowanie w ten sposób pokoju na świecie.

Jak się później okazało, żadnej broni masowego rażenia w Iraku nie było, a Saddam nie wspierał Al-Kaidy. Wykorzystane przez Powella dowody okazały się zbiorem kłamstw i półprawd, po prostu jedną wielką manipulacją . Wojna iracka okazała się zaś dla Stanów Zjednoczonych bardzo kosztowną operacją: zginęło ponad cztery tysiące żołnierzy, wydano setki miliardów dolarów. Co więcej, iracka eskapada odciągnęła uwagę Waszyngtonu od pierwotnego teatru zmagań z globalnym terroryzmem - Afganistanu. W efekcie okupacja tego kraju trwa do dziś, choć wojna zakończyła się jeszcze w 2001 roku.

U podstaw wojny irackiej leżało wiele założeń. Administracja Busha myślała, że uda się siłą obalać bliskowschodnie reżimy i nieść w ten sposób demokrację w skonfliktowanym i zapalnym regionie świata. Swoją rolę odegrała także ropa naftowa oraz kluczowe położenie Iraku w sercu Bliskiego Wschodu. Z Iraku można było szachować kolejny nieprzyjazny reżim, w Iranie, a także umocnić swoją obecność w Zatoce Perskiej. Istotny wpływ na podjęcie decyzji o obaleniu Saddama i okupacji Iraku odegrały także interesy Izraela. Państwo Żydowskie postrzegało Bagdad jako zagrożenie dla swej egzystencji. Przynajmniej tak postrzegali sytuację wpływowi izraelscy politycy oraz ich przyjaciele w USA.

Wojna była prowadzona pod sztandarem i przez neokonserwatystów w Waszyngtonie, którzy zdobyli ogromne wpływy w republikańskiej administracji Georga W. Busha. Neokoni byli także architektami inwazji na Irak, położyli pod nią "naukowe" fundamenty. Jak bardzo mylili się w swych założeniach, widać dzisiaj bardzo dobrze. Jeden z głównych oponentów polityki neokonserwatywnej, reprezentujący realistyczną szkołę stosunków międzynarodowych Stephen M. Walt mówi dzisiaj, że neokonserwatyści mylili się prawie we wszystkim przez ostatnie kilkanaście lat. Mimo to, nigdy nie przyznali się do błędów. Ba, mają się całkiem dobrze i nadal dominują w przestrzeni medialnej oraz, chyba, w politycznej.

Fiasko myśli neokonserwatywnej, według realistów takich jak wspomniany już Walt czy John J. Mearsheimer polega na odrzuceniu realiów i innych, niż wykorzystanie siły w postaci inwazji na kraje trzecie, instrumentów przez supermocarstwo jakim są Stany Zjednoczone. Jeszcze w lutym 2003 roku Mearsheimer i Walt pisali na łamach New York Timesa , że atak na Irak jest niepotrzebny, że można ewentualne wrogie działania Iraku powstrzymywać w inny sposób i że wojna okaże się bardzo kosztowna. Warto przeczytać podlinkowany PDF, ponieważ dwaj realiści mieli rację co do joty.

Więcej, artykuł Walta i Mearsheimera powinien być dla wszystkich ostrzeżeniem przed nawoływaniem do lub wspieraniem ataku na Iran (jego instalacje nuklearne, a może także na infrastrukturę Korpusu Strażników Rewolucji). Ogólna wymowa tekstu sprzed siedmiu lat idealnie pasuje do Iranu, wystarczy podstawić Teheran w miejsce Bagdadu. Stany Zjednoczone (a także świat) mogą skutecznie powstrzymywać Iran i jego ewentualne wrogie zamiary i działania bez ataku na instalacje nuklearne. Nawet nuklearny Iran nie będzie w stanie zaszkodzić Stanom Zjednoczonym (ani Izraelowi), gdyż potencjalna odpowiedź zaatakowanego będzie dewastująca.

Niestety, Walt, Mearsheimer i inni podobnie myślący eksperci nie mieli w 2003 roku odpowiedniej siły przebicia. Jako wyraz rozpaczy należy potraktować wykupienie przez nich, we wrześniu 2002 roku, ogłoszenia w New York Timesie, w którym wskazują, dlaczego wojna w Iraku nie jest w interesie Stanów Zjednoczonych . Dziś sytuacja jest tylko trochę lepsza, gdyż w amerykańskich mediach ponownie dominuje jastrzębie nastawienie wobec Iranu. Realiści i inni krytycy stawiania sprawy programu atomowego na ostrzu noża znów są zakrzykiwani przez neokonserwatystów i ich przyjaciół.

Scenariusz łudząco przypomina przygotowania do wojny z Irakiem, z tą tylko różnicą, że teraz rozważa się uderzenia punktowe, a nie inwazję na pełną skalę. Jest to jednak niewielka różnica z punktu widzenia skuteczności realizacji zakładanego celu. W Iraku chodziło rzekomo o broń masowego rażenia i Al-Kaidę (no dobrze, w dziesiątej kolejności także o prawa człowieka), w Iranie znowu chodzi o broń masowego rażenia oraz terroryzm (wspieranie chociażby Hezbollahu).

W rocznicę kłamstw Powella naprawdę warto zastanowić się nad rzetelnością dzisiejszych wojennych krzykaczy.

Piotr Wołejko

 

grafika: whereistheoutrage.net

 

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Komentarze

Chciałbym polecić b. ciekawy artykuł z FP, o tym, jak to Interwencja w Panamie w 1989 roku "udowodniła" "skuteczność" interwencji USA w celu realizacji interesów:

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2009/12/18/noriegas_revenge

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#46316

Colas Bregnon
Broń masową Saddam posiadał, dostał ją od USA gdy prowadził wojnę z Homeinim. Były to gazy bojowe, których pierw wypróbował na Kurdach a potem wytruł parę tysięcy irackich nastolatków, którzy podbechtani przez szalonego Imama szli falami na irackie okopy, bez broni, a tylko z zawieszonym na szyji plastikowym "kluczem do Nieba" (made in Taiwan).
CIA spodziewało się że Saddam może również pracować nad stworzeniem potencjału nuklearnego. Nie było na to co prawda bezpośrednich dowodów ale Irak przecież już był na dobrej drodze do wyprodukowania materiałów rozszczepialnych do momentu gdy Izrael (w nieco pirackim stylu) zbombardował mu reaktor atomowy w Osirak. Izraelczycy zdecydowanie nie pozbawieni poczucia humoru nazwali tą brawurową, skądinnąd akcjię "Operation Opera". No i taką była. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

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Colas Bregnon

#46327

Ale w 2003 roku nie posiadał takowej broni "gotowej do użycia w 15 minut".

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#46333

Colas Bregnon
Napisałem CIA spodziewało się.. czyli nie był to fakt DOKONANY. Czytaj dokładnie, Hombre.
CB
Dammit. Znowu Grumpy Old Mam ze mnie wychodzi.

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Colas Bregnon

#46336

Colas Bregnon
...samo podejrzenie żeby wywołać wojnę wystarczyło.
A tak a propos to zawsze mnie dziwiło że Amerykanie byli tak głupi że zdecydowali się na taką akcję.
I tu muszę się do czegoś przyznać.
Jakiś czas przed zaatakowaniem Iraku, tak po prostu w ramach dyskusji napisałem do anchora kanału CNN (Warner Brothers) Wolfa Blitzera (co jest absolutnie normalne bo miliony ludzi do niego piszą) co się stanie jak Amerykanie zaatakują Irak. Oto on (niefortunnie po angielsku):

Dear Mr. Blitzer
Problem USA is facing in that present time; “attack or not attack Iraq” scares me. Warsaw Pact military experts, specializing in psycho warfare, predicted situation like that in late sixtieth. I’d like to come back to time when USA was getting involved in progressing war in Vietnam. Warsaw Pact received that as an escalation of the Cold War. They, also noticed that a war was very unpopular among the American Society. That was totally different than WWII and brought an idea that come into life under name “Psychological Warfare”.
It was, actually nothing new, the Ministry of Propaganda of the Third Reich, under direction of Dr. Goebels was successfully doing that before and during wartime.
It meant use of any means leading to destruction of social relations in enemy’s society, spread fear, lack of confidence etc.
Field arm of “psycho warfare” - scientific studies containing planning of actions and prediction of results, was division named “Diversion and Sabotage”.
As you know, war in Vietnam was very unpopular between American people and for many years affected people’s trust in government. It was predicted too. It was, also predicted that American blacks will start campaign for equality.
With a little help, perhaps.
It's possible the Black Panthers movements got some cash from Russia.
Terrorists’ attacks on USA were also predicted in mid 60th. Looking for opportunities of creating anti - USA coalition Warsaw Pact “Gurus” started flirting with many African and Arab countries supplying them with conventional weapons and unconventional ideas.
One of the closest allies was Libya. Khadafi was a good learner, considering the Western World as an evil, and was very much willing to share what he learned with everybody who wanted to know, including people, which later became supporters of Bin Laden.
That means the Al Qaeda is a well-trained quasi-military organization.
Please remember that the East Block countries were and still are, I may say, experts in guerrilla with huge experience from WWII.
They knew how to organize and keep lethal partisan movements. Such are extremely difficult to destroy.
Looking on Vietnam, North Ireland and few others you should already know that. Germans, for instance, analyzing War with Polish Resistance figured out that only ratio 10 – 1 in engaged forces may bring some satisfactory results.
Warsaw Pact’s specialists believed that most effective, and actually only working solution, is to cut partisans from supply lines. Just after WWII was finished, Soviet and Polish Governments were fighting with UPA (Ukrainian Revolutionary Army). To eliminate this movement all habitants were removed from areas covered by UPA activities. Few millions people were moved to other parts of Poland. Soviets, most probably, didn’t bother, they just eliminated them.
That way UPA was cut off supplies and movement died.
That is impossible in case of Al Qaeda.
They don’t have a country, no operational areas where they stay, and nobody knows their supporters.
Nobody also knows their sources and where they are coming from. It’s not known how long they were preparing themselves to 9/11. For many years, for sure.
They must have lots of their people living in Europe and USA. (We already have American, Canadian and Swedish Talibans).
It was Russian system to build whole organizations of sleeping agents in countries they were targeting.
They preferred that way, instead of recruitment of local citizens spying for money.
They did it too, as a matter of fact, it was working especially well here, in America, and Russians had an opinion that Americans will do anything for hard cash.
I believe that Bin Laden, before 9/11 took place, built himself and his key people ways of escape.
I believe, he used them and now he is waiting to strike again. WTC act of war shown how easy is to hurt USA.
And it will be easy to do it again.
It’s entirely possible that plan for next attack is ready and sources are in place. Who knows how many agents fled the USA, Canada and Europe as legal or illegal emigrants. How many Middle East people, even US citizens, are supporters of the Jihad. How many scientists from the Middle East, educated in American universities, are working for Bin Laden.
US President wants to attack and destroy Saddam Hussein and Iraq. I wish him well.
To attack a country is easy, to win is perhaps more difficult, still possible, but what USA is going to do after the victory? Occupation of Iraq?
That means to have whole Iraqi population on US payroll, for many years to go. Now, we have problem with Afghanistan, looks like Kerzai government won’t be able to survive even one day without US support and protection.
Do Americans really need another millions of people to feed? If war, will cause damage to Iraq industry and economy, USA will decide to help them rebuilt what you’ve destroyed. I’m not even trying to speculate how expensive it’s going to be. Can US taxpayers afford that?
On the top of the said problem, USA from victim status will became aggressor and whole Arab World will be against them. Entirely possible, that many other countries will share that opinion, too.
Some Europeans are not very happy with idea of attacking Iraq, either. It is already known that US popularity, as a victim, is lower than one year ago.
Another thing is that war with fanatics is impossible to win, unless drastic measures are used.
Is USA ready to repeat what happened to Japan?
War is about killing; only dead enemy won’t strike again. Arabs are fanatics.
It’s not only small group of lunatics with big money to spend, it is a few millions of poor young men not seeing any better future ahead of them.
Notice that military budgets of many Arab countries are not helping them to built industrial infrastructures and create jobs. Also, they have different mentality than we have. Russians, when started flirting with Africa learned that on very hard way. As a matter of fact, money lost in African lunacy probably could save a system, or at least, could keep the Communist Russia running for many more years.
But, during whole African enterprise, Russians learned something about mentality of those people.
Theory they created is actually adding a new chapter to the theory of human evolution. Look on recent history of Black Continent. What happened in Rwanda, Sierra Leone, or in Sudan is difficult to understand by somebody raised in European culture.
It is also a proof that we are different people.
We don’t cut hands of our opponents (Sierra Leone); we don’t sell them as slaves (Sudan), or not killing them because they are taller than neighbours citizens are (Rwanda). We don’t drag bodies of our enemies on streets (Somali, dead USAF pilot was treated that way), or bodies of our own people accused for collaboration and killed without proper court trial (Gaza).
We consider such actions unmoral, inhuman, barbaric and not civilized. They don’t.
We have our own cruel history, but we’ve learned, and we do not have any desire to become cruel again.
They don’t have the same experience as we do.
If USA will decide attack Iraq must be prepared to kill many people. If you do not have guts to do it, better choose different approach.
Because, if you won’t show them your deadly power and determination, it will be understood by them as your weakness.
Take their wealth from them, put under control World’s weapon marked. Spend some money to bring military technologies to 22 century.
Make it not available to them.
Find alternative sources of energy; cut consumption of their oil in half. It’ll destroy them and will be healthier for the Mother Earth. Only reason for what is happening now is; they have too much cash to spend.
Take it from them. Do not let them get together to fight you, as a one mutual enemy.
Let them fight between themselves. “Divide et impera” (Conquer and Divide). This is how Romans built their emporium and supremacy. Later however, they became too rich and too lazy, that they didn’t want fight anymore.
That’s why barbaric German and Celtic tribes took over.
America doesn't have to be the nowadays Rome.
Your borders are still open, few millions Muslims living in the country may became believers of jihad and join war against USA. God knows what other domestic extremists are going to do? Even, if they love their country, but they not necessary love their own government.
US borders are not secured at all. It’s possible to bring almost anything from Canada to US and almost anything from rest of the World to Canada.
That country is not able to protect its own borders, whatsoever. Two years ago illegal emigrants from China gave us a proof of that. The Canadian Coast Guard found empty small vessel drifting near Vancouver Island, people were gone, the second one was located, and more than 100 Chinese illegals put in jail. I strongly believe that if somebody wants to smuggle Statue of Liberty from US to Canada wouldn’t have too much troubles.
Moreover, we have here many emigrants from the Middle East, already.
There must be a lot of supporters of jihad among them.
We already know some of them, they became active.
How many of them are waiting in the shadow, waiting for opportunity to strike? How many of them is Saddam’s agents? Or, Iranian, or Syrian, or Libyan or….
Al Qaeda it is not just the group of fanatics.
This is huge, powerful and resourceful organization with many supporters.
Few governments included.
USA should not start any war without having its own borders protected and sealed, with all potential troublemakers inside the country under microscope, or eliminated.
Very difficult task. Especially in USA.
In order to do that it is necessary to give up few freedoms and convince US citizens that it’s for their own good.
For good of whole country.
For good of whole American Continent.
It was also predicted by “Psycho War Gurus” that in certain moment beloved American freedoms might work against American people.
In a long run may even cause destruction of whole society. It was said ones; “It is impossible to build well organized society based on freedoms, sooner or later such freedoms will work against ordinary members of the society”.
WOW !
Hope it is wrong, but quite frankly last few years when I heard in TV somebody claiming “this is a free country”, it was usually a crook trying to find an excuse for what he has done.
Johnstown in Guyana, Waco in Texas, crooked TV preachers, Church of Scientology, Santaria, Cult of Snakes……. Even in the name of God some people are screwing others. Freedoms…..???? What is for me? - ordinary hard working American may ask.
It was predicted that very hard time is coming to America and Americans. Your destiny is in your hands.
Deal with it wisely.
Kind Regards
Colas Bregnon
Cook Islands, Sept. 05. 2002

And another letter:
Hue
America is in war with Iraq. Every day kids are shot like ducks because American Army is totally unprepared to guerrilla war. Why? It’s nothing new, Northern Ireland, Vietnam, only those two supposed to be enough proof how difficult is to deal with partisans.
WWII – Poland, we created the biggest guerrilla movement in the World.
Later after a war, all we know was analyzed, checked by historians and cold war gurus. We Poles had our own problem with guerrilla movement.
It was UPA (Ukrainska Povstantschaya Armia / Ukrainian Liberation Army). During a war – collaborating with Germans, after war was still very active in rugged mountainous area called Bieszczady in a corner between Russian, Polish and Czechoslovakian borders.
Very difficult to fight, no heavy equipment, no tanks, no planes, just soldier against soldier.
Difficult to find and identify.
Farmer during a day, fighter during a night.
Russian deal with them quickly, there was no alive soul left in an area under their control.
Polish Government decided to move all Ukrainians to another parts of the country. But not only that.
There was a Polish Army fighting Germans side by side with Russians.
There was another one under command of general Berling, established on the Polish soil.
There were many former partisans in it, soldiers whose spend years in a forest knowing that type of war by heart.
Bieszczady those days it was a mixture of different origin fighters that very often they used to open fire on each other. WIN (Wiara i Niepodległość) very right anti-communist wing.
Wehrvolf – some German renegades not able to escape to the West, fighting to the death because a gallows was waiting for them in reborn Poland.
And many others.
Main force was, of course UPA but, as was said, they were not only ones.
General Berling ordered to establish special forces units. They took former partisans with huge experience in a forest.
They look exactly like UPA fighters, same signs of malnutrition, rotten teeth, absolutely all signs of living guerrilla fighter’s life.
They make units 20 to 50 soldiers strong, equipped them with various sort of weapons and send them back to forest.
Order, was simple one: find UPA units, engage and eliminate.
It worked, UPA movement died in a year.
Amazed how effective such units were cold war specialists established a force designed, as was said: “To eliminate technical and living sources of an enemy on its own territory”.
An other words “Diversion and Sabotage Units”.
I will give you just one small example how they were equipped for such type of war:
They were trained to act as totally independent teams and equipped to survive for one week without any replacement and supplies, at all.
Of course, all they needed was carried on their own backs.
Amount of weight a soldier supposed to carry was 30 kilos. That means all stuff supposed to be so light as possible.
Then;
1. Gun – WSS Russian design 2.6 kilos only, with built in silencer. (see below)
2. Food – Combat action portions – very dried powdered meat mixed with fat (lard), potato starch, and vitamins.
Idea developed actually by North American Indians.
They called that a “pemmican”, which spreads in stomach 15 times of original volume.
If you have water you can make a tasty soup from it, if don’t, just chew.
US Army is using MRE (Meal Ready to Eat portions) I heard GIs call them Meal Rejected by Ethiopians. Must be delicious.
3. Gun oil: Castor Oil (Oleum Ricini) you can lubricate a gun, you can drink that in case of stomach problem, you can put that on wounds, you can even lubricate a dick before unprotected sex. It was a main component of masking paste too, keeps mosquitoes away. Very strong bacteria killer. Multipurpose of use eliminates necessity to carry special stuff for each of mentioned problems.
4. Communication devices: VHF with “laryngophone” (mike attached to throat).
For some reason not very popular in US Army.
It’s really good, eliminates background noise, easy to use and stick to the neck, so is not so easy to get damaged.
5. Personal hygiene – instead tooth paste there was a chewing gum containing a clove oil, very effective bacteria killer and deodorant in the same time. No soap “when you’re in a forest stink like a forest”.
More difficult to detect by dogs.
They were not a problem at all.
A sniffing tobacco was used, just leave a bit behind you and dog when sniff id good for nothing, out of service, sense of smell is gone forever.
Recruitment conditions: highly intelligent, independently thinking individuals, extremely good health, two languages minimum, not married….
There are no doubts in my mind that US GIs are PERFECT Soldiers.
And that is a problem.
System of training “Break and Rebuild” makes them robots, good to obey orders and carry them on.
They are too perfect. Special Forces soldiers must think logically, independently they must be highly intelligent and explore ANY opportunity to reach their goals.

If they learn do that, they may be successful.
So far watching stories from Afghanistan,
I saw such guys wearing civilian clothing, but if they wanted to disappear in Arab crowd that wasn’t even remotely close to success. It was a rule in that unit: “When in forest, look like a tree”. Americans still don’t.
All American and British Services are looking for WMDs.
My very best guess is: there is nothing in Iraq. They are in Iran or Syria.
To find a proof of existence of WMD Americans supposed to find out if Saddam in years, lets say 1995 - 2003 executed any scientists, engineers or people whose profession could be use in WMD business.
If such records will be found, that means Saddam built and is hiding his dirty weapons. He got them ready to use, that’s why he eliminated people, who built them. He didn’t need them anymore and he made everybody who might know something disappear.
There are few more conditions to design and build such forces, to be successful is very difficult, if deconspirated they may be most certainly sentenced to death. Very painful one. Sometimes.
Cheers

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Colas Bregnon

#46339

Moim zdaniem, atak na Irak. mimo wszystkich kosztów, nie był jednak błędem. Błędem było jedynie uciekanie się do fałszywego pretekstu. Husajn był nieobliczalnym mordercą, ludobójcą i należało go usunąć - nikt nie mógł zagwarantować, że nie dokona z dnia na dzień wolty i nie spiknie się z Al-Kaidą. Bush zmusił Al-Kaidę do rozproszenia sił, walki na wielu frontach i dość solidnie ją przetrzebił (również w Iraku). Dziś Irak stabilizuje się, wraca tam normalność (Irakijczycy przejmują z rąk USA kontrolę nad krajem) - bez szalonego dyktatora u władzy.

Uważam ponadto, że nuklearne instalacje w Iranie należy zniszczyć. Atom w rękach ajatollahów, to bomba zegarowa podłożona pod świat. Należy wykorzystać narastanie wewnętrznego oporu przeciw rządom teokracji. A co daje "promienna" polityka Obamy i gesty "dobrej woli", widzimy wszyscy - tylko rozzuchwalają islamskich fanatyków.

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#46380

Doprawiona keczapem.
Wyższość propagandy nad okomiarem :(

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#46387

Doprecyzuj, proszę.
Gdzie propaganda, gdzie (jeśli trafnie odczytuję Twą metaforę), propagandowy "keczap"?

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P.S. Grzybowej zupy doprawionej keczapem nie wziąłbym do ust ;)

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#46492